A groundbreaking new analysis of 2025 property sales data reveals that while Bexar County’s property assessments are remarkably accurate on a macro level, thousands of individual homeowners may be shouldering an unfair tax burden due to significant over-assessment at the neighborhood level. The comprehensive BCAD assessment study, conducted by San Antonio real estate expert and investor Danny Johnson of Danny Buys Houses, cross-referenced every single-family home sale from the first half of 2025 with the Bexar County Appraisal District’s (BCAD) assessed values, uncovering specific zip code "hotspots" where assessed values are, on average, substantially higher than actual market sale prices.
The full analysis has been released today as a public service to empower homeowners with the data needed to evaluate the fairness of their property tax assessments and, if necessary, dispute them.
“Every homeowner deserves to know if they are paying their fair share in property taxes, but the process can feel opaque and confusing,” said Danny Johnson, a San Antonio native who has been investing in the local real estate market for over two decades. “We undertook this analysis to bring transparency to the valuation process. Our goal is to arm our neighbors with the same data that professionals use, so they can make informed decisions about their most valuable asset. This isn't about selling a service; it's about providing a community service.”
The study’s methodology was designed for maximum accuracy and transparency. Johnson’s team filed an open records request for all 2025 county valuation data and meticulously compared it against sold prices for single-family homes recorded in the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) for the first and second quarters of 2025. To ensure the integrity of the data, all new construction homes were excluded, as their initial tax assessments are often based on the value of the empty lot, which would inaccurately skew the results.
Surprisingly, the study’s first major finding was that, as a whole, the BCAD is highly effective. The county-wide data showed that properties are assessed at an average of 99.5% of their actual sale price, a near-perfect ratio.
However, this county-wide average masks a volatile and unpredictable reality for individual homeowners. The analysis revealed that the outcome of a sale is nearly a 50/50 proposition: in the second quarter of 2025, 46.8% of homes sold for less than their assessed value, while 48.1% sold for more. This "coin-flip" scenario creates a profound "Certainty Gap" for residents, where the official assessed value is an unreliable predictor of a home’s true market worth.
It is within this gap that the issue of tax fairness emerges. The study identified several zip codes that are consistent "hotspots" for significant over-assessment.
Key Over-Assessed Zip Codes in Bexar County (2025 Data):
- 78225: In the first quarter, properties in this Southside zip code were assessed, on average, at a staggering 134% of their actual sale price (a ratio of 1.34). The trend continued in the second quarter at 113% (1.13 ratio).
- 78204: This area, just south of downtown, showed consistent over-assessment, with properties valued at 116% of their sale price in the first quarter and 113% in the second.
- 78214: Located near the San Antonio Missions, this zip code saw properties assessed at 119% of their market value in the first quarter.
For residents in these areas, the financial implications are direct and significant. An assessment that is 10-30% higher than a property’s true market value can translate into hundreds or even thousands of dollars in excess property taxes paid each year.
“When you see a consistent pattern of over-assessment in specific neighborhoods, it suggests that the tax burden may not be distributed as equitably as the county-wide average implies,” Johnson explained. “Homeowners in these hotspots are effectively subsidizing other areas. We believe that by highlighting these discrepancies, we can help residents start a conversation and ensure the system is fair for everyone. If your property is in one of these zip codes and you feel your valuation is too high, we strongly encourage you to dispute it. A successful appeal not only saves you money but also helps the BCAD refine its data for the entire community.”
While the primary goal of the report is homeowner advocacy, its findings also underscore the deep uncertainty inherent in the traditional real estate market. The unreliability of assessed values as a financial anchor can create immense stress for those needing to sell. A guaranteed, fair cash offer provides a solution by closing the "Certainty Gap," offering a definite sale price that eliminates the risks of market volatility, failed inspections, and appraisal issues.
“Our business is providing certainty in an uncertain market,” Johnson concluded. “But our commitment as a local, family-owned company is to the financial health of our community. We hope this analysis serves as a valuable tool for all San Antonio homeowners, empowering them to take control of their property’s value.”
The complete analysis, including detailed charts and data for dozens of Bexar County zip codes, is available for free at https://dannybuyshouses.com/assessed-vs-sold.
About Danny Buys Houses
Founded in 2005 by San Antonio native Danny Johnson, Danny Buys Houses is a trusted real estate investment company specializing in buying homes for cash. Serving San Antonio and surrounding areas, the company provides a fast, fair, and certain solution for homeowners in any situation, purchasing properties "as-is" to eliminate the hassle and expense of repairs and listings. With a steadfast commitment to ethical practices and transparency, Danny Buys Houses boasts an A+ rating from the Better Business Bureau and over 100 five-star customer reviews.
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Media Contact:
Danny Johnson
Danny Buys Houses
337 W Hollywood Ave, San Antonio, TX 78212
danny@dannybuyshouses.com
Published by: Randy Rohde