Monday, September 20, 2021

How Tesla’s Model 3 triggered The Osborne Effect, and caused the ICE market to melt - The Driven

Last updated Sunday, August 15, 2021 03:00 ET , Source: NewsService

The downturn in global new car sales started in 2017, steepened in 2020 thanks to Covid, and even though it has rebounded in many markets in 2021, it is still below the levels of 2019.

Worldwide new plug-in electric vehicle sales were up over 43% year-on-year, from 2.26 million in 2019 to 3.24 million in 2020. That delivered plug-in electric vehicle sales – both full battery electric and plug in hybrids – a 4.2 per cent share of the global new car market in 2020.

Looking closer for a moment at the trend shown in figure 1 (above), EV uptake appears to be following the typical uptake curve of all of our most ubiquitous current technologies, as shown in figure 2 (below)

If EVs are following this path, it may not be long before the ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) vehicle goes the way of (and as quickly as) the horse and carriage (figure 3). This would be far faster than current industry predictions of 30 to 50% new EV sales by 2030.

Interestingly, not all countries are at the same point of the EV uptake curve. Norway (with 2025 legislated as their date to end all new non-EV sales) is nearing the top already – with monthly PEV sales in July this year hitting 84.7% and full battery EVs alone making up 61.4%.

Many nearby EU countries are not all that far behind. Sweden hit 37.6% PEV sales in July, Germany 23.5% and the UK 17.1%.

Another interesting sign-of-the-times is the decline of the diesel engine passenger vehicle. For example, in July this year UK new diesel passenger...

Read Full Story: https://thedriven.io/2021/08/15/how-teslas-model-3-triggered-the-osbourne-effect-and-caused-the-ice-market-to-melt/

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