Fitch expects the NMC chemistry to remain the dominant EV battery cathode type over its forecast period, (2021- 2030) owing to the superior energy density of high-nickel variations, which improve vehicle range and charging speeds.
The LFP cathode will also gain market share given its low-cost, longer life-cycle and advantageous raw material inputs (no nickel or cobalt) which mitigate supply-side constraints to an extent, Fitch says.
Demand for battery materials will remain elevated as more automakers commit to electrifying an extent of their model-line ups. In the immediate term, the demand outlook for battery materials will be determined by automaker, and by extension consumer demand specifications in Europe, China and the US, which Fitch expects to combine to account for an annualised average of 86.4% of global EV sales over its forecast period.
Fitch expects those demand specifications to vary significantly across the three key global EV markets – Europe, China and the US because EV battery performance demands will vary significantly based on a market’s EV charging network infrastructure (public and private), geography, consumer purchasing power and automotive culture.
These factors will inform the energy density (which is determined by the composition of active ingredients in battery materials and dictates EV range), thermal regulation (which controls battery temperature) and cost requirements in specific markets, Fitch says.
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