Earlier this year, Pakistan was closing in on technology services exports of $3 billion for FY22. The sitting IT minister even claimed we’d surpass it, and based on the growth trajectory then, there was little reason to doubt him. All hopes for dollar inflows were pinned to one sector, apart from the mercy of our overseas brethren. But after that, the growth started to slow down. Pakistan’s exports of telecom, communication, and information services haven’t surpassed their March peak of $212.3 million in seven months. For comparison, the most prolonged period was in the first half of 2020 when exports were at their “highest-ever” level every three to four months.
As PTI supporters link the slowdown to the change in government and the ensuing political unrest, the issue assumes a political hue. On the other side, supporters of the ruling party view it as a weakness rather than a strength. Fortunately, depending on how you look at it, the data can either provide us with some context or, conversely, may confuse us even more. For instance, for the first time since Q3FY16 that the quarterly telecom exports decreased year over a year occurred Q1FY23. Pakistan’s sector profits from July to September totaled $633 million, which was less than the previous four quarters’ totals. That occurred in FY14 and FY15 the last time it did so.
In addition, when the PTI was expelled from power, the annual average growth rate for each month between April and October was only 9.56%. The same...
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