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Friday, June 13, 2025

Surprise surprise! - Yahoo Finance

Last updated Wednesday, February 8, 2023 23:05 ET

By Jamie McGeever
(Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever.
With little on Thursday's Asian economic data docket aside from Taiwanese inflation, investors will take their cue from Wall Street's slide and deluge of Fed commentary on Wednesday, and await some key Chinese indicators in the days ahead.
China's economy is revving up its engines again after a prolonged COVID-19 lockdown stalling, and economists are having to adjust their forecasts just as quickly.
Citi's economic surprises index for China is now at its highest level since May last year. This may surprise no one, given how beaten down expectations were before Beijing's sudden 180 degree turn on its zero-COVID policy in December.
But still, the index currently stands at 64.8 and has been higher in only a handful of periods in the past 15 years.
GRAPHIC: China economic surprises index - https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/byvrlkezgve/CESICN.png
Of course, a high surprises index can be read two ways: are incoming numbers exceeding forecasts because they are strong in their own right, or because economists' expectations were too gloomy to begin with?
The running assumption is China's reopening is inflationary for the world. Rising demand from one of the world's largest consumers for commodities, oil, energy and resources will push up prices.
But there is a countervailing impact from the increased supply of all the goods and components that China produces, such as semiconductors...



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